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Orange Blooded [4183]
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Russia is just a distraction from China
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May 15, 2024, 8:48 AM
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Folks that say “ let’s bleed Russia” by prolonging this war in Ukraine are checkers players
The chess game is being played at the adults table where China is watching the US deplete it’s munition stock and compromise our operational readiness
And don’t accuse me of appeasing Putin. What Russia did is wrong and should have never happened. But unless we have the appetite to directly intervene, this war is a lost cause and it will keep our eyes diverted from the real threat to our position in the world (China)
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Hall of Famer [20653]
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Re: Russia is just a distraction from China
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May 15, 2024, 11:59 AM
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They're completely different theatres, with completely different requirements. And they challenge completely different parts of our armed forces.
Ukraine is a land war. They need guns, bullets, and especially artillery shells. They need tanks, and they need anti-air defenses; they're getting pummeled by Russian glide bombs at the moment.
China/Taiwan would be a naval battle. China has to find a way to put sufficient troops on Taiwan over 100 miles of water to successfully take the island, all while cutting off the US's ability to re-supply Taiwan or even directly interdict the Chinese landing force. That's all about Navy-vs-Navy and air power.
The problem there is, China, unlike Russia, is extraordinarily reliant on the world to feed and power itself...and vastly more dependent on trade to sustain its economy. They import 50% of their food, and a significant portions of the inputs needed to make food - meaning, fertilizer and farm equipment. This is particularly important because China's soil is terrible and requires several times more fertilizer than US farmlands. They also import 75% of their energy - and it comes from the Middle East.
This is huge, because it means even if the Chinese figure out a way to defeat the US Pacific Fleet and take Taiwan - which I'm highly skeptical of - they would then have to deal with the blockade that would invariably follow. Just a couple of US destroyers could effectively stop tankers from coming from the Middle East and re-fueling China, and it wouldn't be much harder to stop the food, fertilizer, and farm equipment. Then what? China starves inside a year, and their lights are out in less than six months.
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Hall of Famer [20653]
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Re: Russia is just a distraction from China
May 15, 2024, 12:11 PM
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Also...as an aside, how is bleeding Russia a bad strategy? Every soldier or tank Ukraine kills is one less the US might have to deal with later...it's cold hard math, and frankly, I'd rather spend Ukrainian lives killing those soldiers and tanks now than spending US lives to stop them later if they too easily overwhelm Ukraine and build up a head of steam. And I do not concede that the war is a lost cause. They're throwing massive waves of troops at Ukraine right now, trying to grab a more favorable position before US munitions arrive and Ukraine resupplies. But Russia is spending massive amounts of troops and tanks in the process. They lost 1,740 men yesterday, apparently - an all-time high in a war that's already killed or wounded close to half a million Russians.
Even if they conquer all of Ukraine - which most military analysts find highly unlikely - you still want the Russian army to be in such a wrecked and depleted state they simply don't have the power to invade somebody else...especially somebody else in NATO.
Ukraine is assuredly achieving that.
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Orange Blooded [4183]
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I agree that bleeding Russia in a vacuum is bad
May 15, 2024, 3:29 PM
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I just think that we need to understand that Russia will win the war and we will be left with less resources
I also don’t think there is a ton of strategic value because Russia is not a true economic threat.
China represents a true economic and military threat and despite the challenges they face
We should keep our powder dry for the real fight
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Oculus Spirit [81949]
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China isn't going to war with their biggest customer***
May 15, 2024, 4:29 PM
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Orange Blooded [4183]
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Yeah, i hope not
May 15, 2024, 4:40 PM
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If someone offered you the opportunity to double (or lose) your life savings with the following bet:
China will go to war with the US sometime in the next 50 years
Would you take that bet?
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Oculus Spirit [81949]
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In the next 50 years? I'd take that bet in a minute.
May 16, 2024, 12:45 PM
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I'm won't be alive in 50 years.
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All-TigerNet [11696]
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Re: In the next 50 years? I'd take that bet in a minute.
May 17, 2024, 8:09 PM
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I won't be alive in 50 years either but it's probably like the war we have been going to have with Russia over the last 80 years.
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Hall of Famer [20653]
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Re: I agree that bleeding Russia in a vacuum is bad
May 16, 2024, 12:39 PM
[ in reply to I agree that bleeding Russia in a vacuum is bad ] |
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One thing history has taught us, though, is that refusing to deal with an imperial power that's conquering its neighbors because it doesn't directly involve you today is pretty much akin to refusing to deal with a serial killer because it wasn't your daughter he stabbed to death.
Leaving aside the fact that it's just plain the right thing to do, you just cannot let certain behaviors slide...because at some point, it will be you. It's far better to live in a world where that isn't permissible.
And no, I do not admit that Russia will win the war. Ukraine's in trouble right now because we freaking ran them out of ammunition after promising them we'd stick with them through thick and thin. That's our failing, not theirs...so it's distinctly intellectually dishonest to then go: "See, I told you they had no chance!"
That's akin to setting the house on fire and then screaming at the top of your lungs it's burning...and that it's Biden's fault. Which is pretty much the modus operandi right now for the MAGA movement and exactly why everyone - even other Republicans - are thoroughly tired of the antics of Marjorie Taylor Greene and Matt Gaetz and the rest of that detestable movement. They're not interested in governing, they're just bomb-throwing arsonists with zero solutions.
NATO was formed for one reason and one reason alone: to contain the Soviet Union. Russia is trying to reconstitute that empire...and we really need to ensure that doesn't happen. If we get them stopped now, they won't be able to do it again in ten years. They're in full-on demographic collapse (the generation after the Wall fell was less than half the size it should have been), and in 10 years time they simply won't have the bodies for another invasion.
We get them stopped now...Russia will collapse, and the whole reason for NATO goes away. Europe can fend for itself at that point.
We're really close to that day. We just need to see it through.
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Orange Blooded [4058]
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Oculus Spirit [81949]
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Damm we need another Reagan.
May 16, 2024, 1:07 PM
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And there are some in here that attempt to compare Trump to him? It's worse than laughable.
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Orange Blooded [4058]
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Re: Damm we need another Reagan.
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May 16, 2024, 1:37 PM
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Trump has turned the GOP into a bunch of wusses who think that appeasement is the way. They forget how that worked for NChamberlain.
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Orange Blooded [4183]
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Are you in support of direct intervention?
May 16, 2024, 1:45 PM
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If so, I don’t think it’s a crazy ideas.
In fact, if you want to teach Putin a lesson, the only language he understands is a total ### kick’n
This half hearted funding of Ukraine resistance is still going to end with a Russian victory and call it what you want - its appeasement too
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Orange Blooded [4058]
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Re: Are you in support of direct intervention?
May 16, 2024, 2:14 PM
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I would not support direct intervention in Ukraine yet. What we are doing now is the correct response. It would be better if MAGA wasn't stalling the aid they need. How did our half hearted funding of the Afghan resistance against Russia work? Should we also roll over and let China take Taiwan? NChamberlain probably would.
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Orange Blooded [4183]
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Ok, can you drop the schitck for a second
May 16, 2024, 4:20 PM
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And admit that Ukraine is going to lose the war
Earth to Birm… It’s just a matter of time.
This is not Afghanistan and Putin is not stopping until he’s won or someone stops him. Agreed?
It’s not a Democrat or Republican issue, it’s just a matter of fact. And will it end with a total defeat or some treaty that gives Russia half of Ukraine. Anyway it’s going to be appeasement anyway you slice it.
And countries like Germany that have the most to lose and who should be dedicating significant portions of their GDP to Ukraine’s defense aren’t stepping up. Where’s the freaking pressure from Biden for them to pay the freaking piper? It’s a joke!
Plus Biden doesn’t have the stones to stop Putin and Putin knows it. Thats why we are in this freaking mess to begin with and why both incursions into sovereign Ukrainian territory have happened on Obama & Biden’s watch. FACT
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Hall of Famer [20653]
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Re: Ok, can you drop the schitck for a second
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May 16, 2024, 4:53 PM
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Europe once did lag behind in contributing to NATO - I think they had this fanciful notion war in Europe was a thing of the past - but in Ukraine, Europe has indeed stepped up large; they know they're next if Ukraine falls. The USA has contributed around $75 billion, the rest of Europe over $100 billion. And Germany is among those leading the charge. Their Leopard 2's were the first modern tanks donated to Ukraine, and they've also contributed those autocannon Gepard AA systems that keep Kyiv largely safe from missile and drone attacks.
And Putin is not going to conquer all of Ukraine unless we totally drop the ball. It'd also take a million men, minimum, to hold and pacify it; Ukraine is large. Sustaining a prolonged military campaign and subsequent occupation would be a huge logistical task, and that gets harder and harder the longer it takes and the more their military is weakened. They're being bled white already.
Also...Putin absolutely knows Biden has the stones to take him on. I disagree a ton with Biden on policy. I definitely think he's too old to be in the chair he's in. I also think his communication skills in particular are terrible...for better or for worse, Trump got his messages out, Biden can't do that to save his own life.
But weak? No. That's tired old Fox News only-the-GOP-is-tough bullsh!t. (The Clintons, for instance, were one of the most hawklike administrations in history; they never met a war they didn't want to wade into.) Biden's a cantankerous old bastage with a Cold War mentality, and that kindly-old-guy persona he wears in public is apparently just that; he'll apparently rip your face off in private. (He's apparently as hard to work for as John McCain was, and McCain was famous for being difficult.) You swing at him, he's going to swing right back, and by now that's been made abundantly clear to Putin. He told Putin, for instance, that if he used nukes in Ukraine, we would destroy every part of his military (conventionally) that we could touch - we'd shoot down his planes, we'd sink his Navy, we'd bomb the crap out of his front lines in Ukraine. It appears Putin believed him; he put away his nukes and they haven't moved since. We also apparently played a tape for him of him giving orders in whatever top-secret supervillain lair he was hiding out in, just to let him know we knew where he was and could watch and listen at all times.
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Orange Blooded [4183]
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Re: Ok, can you drop the schitck for a second
May 16, 2024, 4:58 PM
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Who has Biden stood up to besides his allies?
He’s mr tough guy with Israel and he won’t let Ukraine have any real planes or long range missles
Real tough guy! Lotta talk from his handlers (not him since he doesn’t really do pressers) and zero stones
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Hall of Famer [20653]
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Re: Ok, can you drop the schitck for a second
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May 17, 2024, 12:33 AM
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Sorry to trouble you with facts. If I'd known you were this resistant to them, I wouldn't have wasted my time with you.
I won't make that mistake again.
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Orange Blooded [4058]
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Re: Ok, can you drop the schitck for a second
May 17, 2024, 6:53 AM
[ in reply to Re: Ok, can you drop the schitck for a second ] |
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Putin. It's rather refreshing to not see our POTUS give blow jobs to Putin in front of the whole world like Trump did, correct? lol
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Orange Blooded [4058]
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Orange Blooded [2205]
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Re: Russia is just a distraction from China
May 15, 2024, 4:51 PM
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OK, we can cut Ukraine loose if you want. If we do, they'll run out of ammo, and be over-run. Then Putin will over-run Moldova. Then, he'll likely turn his sights to the Baltic states and Poland.
And while he does all of this, his cyber operation will be undermining democracy in the West, and partnering with bad players all over the world, and that's when he's not busy killing his political enemies.
Oh, and China is watching what we do in Ukraine. If we bail on Ukraine, China will know they can go ahead and attack Taiwan, because we won't hang in for the long haul.
And I won't accuse YOU of appeasing Putin. But there are quite a few people on the right-wing in the US that are pro-Putin, because they see him as "in the game with them" on anti-Woke, and anti-Democracy.
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Orange Blooded [4183]
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Re: Russia is just a distraction from China
May 16, 2024, 2:05 PM
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Can we at least agree that Putin is going take Ukraine whether we fund/supply them or not?
I think the notion that Ukraine prevails here or that Putin relents is not tethered to reality. The only hope is that Putin dies and by some stroke of luck someone that’s not worse takes over. (Highly unlikely)
As long as we are all honest and admit that we are just laying out a speed bump to slow down the inevitable, then I can see the logic (just disagree the cost is worth the benefit in light of all the other challenges we face)
Honestly, Europe should be fronting the cost of all this because it’s their ### on the line. Especially Germany and their stupid energy policy
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Orange Blooded [2205]
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No, I don't think we agree....
May 16, 2024, 10:49 PM
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Ukraine has done an outstanding job defending their territory. And recently, that's even with supplies running low because we stopped helping them. If we keep funding them, and advise them, and help them, AND DON'T LEAVE THEM, I think they can keep Russia out of the vast majority of their country.
Many countries in Europe are giving a higher % of their GDP to Ukraine than we are. The US is falling down on the job.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1303450/bilateral-aid-to-ukraine-in-a-percent-of-donor-gdp/
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Orange Blooded [4058]
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Orange Blooded [3812]
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Re: Russia is just a distraction from China
May 15, 2024, 5:00 PM
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Umm no. We have stepped up our production. We are playing chess.
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Starter [374]
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China isnt going to attack us, calm down.***
May 16, 2024, 12:44 PM
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All-In [42739]
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They certainly seem to be preparing for war with us
May 16, 2024, 1:46 PM
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And our military has publicly acknowledged that.
China has stated they will be ready to beat us by 2027.
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Orange Blooded [4183]
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Thats a pretty naive opinion
May 16, 2024, 2:11 PM
[ in reply to China isnt going to attack us, calm down.*** ] |
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And let’s agree on this - they have been strategically attacking us economically for a long time
They are Chinese and they know war. The attack will be from a position of strength, in a place of their choosing, and it will be a surprise (it’s all in a book they wrote)
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Oculus Spirit [81949]
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That book was written about 2400 years ago.
May 16, 2024, 4:45 PM
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and it was about essentially a civil war fought between 7 internal Chinese states. It's a good thing warfare hasn't changed much since then, huh?
The main point of the Art of War is that a state should always be prepared for war. The US spent about $916 Billon on it's military in 2023--or more than the next 9 countries did in total on their militaries, China included.
I'd say we are pretty prepared.
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Orange Blooded [4183]
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I personally think most of the principles in that book
May 16, 2024, 5:04 PM
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Are enduring and have withstood the test of time
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All-In [42739]
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Strong disagree
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May 17, 2024, 7:59 AM
[ in reply to That book was written about 2400 years ago. ] |
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Art of War is still successfully employed not only in military strategies (including our military), but it's a staple for business management and leadership. Even the fat orange #######, when successful, is using its tactics.
China plans to hit Taiwan in a few years, and they'll do it by surprise like Art of War suggests. When they do, they're also going to launch something at us to attempt to destabilize us. I know we spend a lot on military tech, but China is trying to win the numbers game. Some of our latest naval endeavors, high tech as they are, have faltered.
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Hall of Famer [20653]
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Re: Strong disagree
May 17, 2024, 2:44 PM
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The reason I question that is: what happens after, and what do they really get?
They'd get blockaded pretty much instantly, and their lack of a blue-water navy is crippling. They can spam the South China Sea with small surface combatants with ranges of less than 1,000 miles, projecting power elsewhere on the globe and breaking a Western blockade is beyond them and will be for the foreseeable future. And they simply cannot produce nearly enough food or especially fuel domestically to supply their needs. Russia can survive without global trade...China absolutely can't.
And then what do they get in return? TSMC is right there with Intel as the world's most advanced chips manufacturer, sure...but TSMC is also wholly reliant on Western supplies - which would be cut off instantly along with their food and fuel - like ASML lithography machines from the Netherlands, and quartz crucibles from Spruce Pine, North Carolina - that exist nowhere else in the world and are absolutely necessary to produce silicon of sufficient quality for sub-10nm chips (the real advanced ones.) Without those two inputs, the TSMC factories are useless to China...and if they take Taiwan, nobody would be willing to trade what they made there anyway even if they did somehow get the factories back on.
Which they wouldn't; TSMC is currently building alternative facilities in the US and would absolutely burn their own factories in Taiwan to keep their IP out of China's hands.
So...given all that, what's Taiwan really worth, and what would it cost the Chinese to take it?
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Starter [374]
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