Advanced Outlook: Clemson-UConn projections

Clemson should find some success through the ground and air agains the Huskies.

by Brandon Rink - Staff Writer - Wed Nov 10 14:40:04 GMT-04:00 2021

Do you remember blowouts? Saturday (noon/ACCN) may just refamiliarize Tiger fans with the concept.

Before the ride that’s been 2021, Dabo Swinney’s Tigers had won by at least three scores eight out of the previous 11 games and 16 of the previous 21 contests. In stark contrast, this season has yielded zero wins by at least three scores against FBS opponents.

(As a side note looking ahead, the last time Clemson didn’t have a three-score win in a season over a major conference team was 1975, a two-win year).

Why might this week be the comfortable win needed to rest the nerves of Clemson Tiger parents, players, coaches and fans alike? Sure, Clemson has improved lately on offense, but the main factor is the UConn Huskies are very much not good at football, by just about any metric.

The FBS independent, which took the entire pandemic-affected 2020 campaign off, hasn’t defeated a Power 5 opponent since 2016 (Virginia) and has rarely been much of a challenge in those type of games -- with the exception of facing a team pretty close to its level earlier this season (a 30-28 Vandy win).

The Huskies' lone 2021 win came versus FCS-level Yale last month (21-15) and they have also lost to an FCS opponent (38-28 to Holy Cross), with an average margin of defeat being 25 points against FBS teams and one being a two-touchdown defeat to the worst team according to ESPN's SP+ rating, UMass (27-13).

Here’s an overview of how the sides mismatch:

Efficiency ranks: Offense | Defense | Special teams

CU SP+ ranks (No. 7 overall): 48 | 4 | 20

UConn SP+ ranks (No. 128 overall): 130 | 124 | 103

CU FPI ranks (No. 8 overall): 84 | 8 | 26

UConn FPI ranks (No. 129 overall): 127 | 123 | 49

Just to pile on, the FEI model has UConn with both the 129th-ranked offense and defense. UConn also has a 129th-ranking in offensive success rate and Expected Points Added* margin and rate 123rd in defensive success rate per play.

UConn’s close win over Yale also coincided with a plus-four number in the turnover margin thanks to four interceptions. They were minus-three on turnovers in the 44-13 loss to Middle Tennessee at home last time out.

Out of the 30-24 win at Louisville, Clemson is coming off of the most points scored this season at the end of offensive drives (30). On the other side of the ball, the defense did surrender its most yards per play (5.67) against the Louisville dual-threat Malik Cunningham. UConn QB Steven Krajewski is averaging 2.48 yards per carry with two touchdowns, so QB-run is probably not a primary threat this week, however.

On to the odds and projections...

Odds (via VegasInsider as of 11/10 afternoon)

Clemson -40.5; 50.5 over/under.

Metrics outlook

SP+ projection: 100% Clemson (Tigers by 48.3)

ESPN FPI: 99.5% Clemson (Tigers by 42.1 points*)

FEI: 99% Clemson (Tigers by 37.3)

TeamRankings: Clemson by 40.2

* Projected margin on a neutral field.

UCONN @ CLEMSON pic.twitter.com/yfBZNtBxyx
— parker (@statsowar) November 9, 2021

Clemson meets a big spread once again, and while those games have been Tiger wins, they often haven’t met the standard set by the odds.

Including the SC State win earlier this year, Clemson is 1-4 against the spread when favored by 40-plus points, stretching back to 2019.

That notwithstanding, the SP+ formula is calling for a shutout, 48-0 Tigers, for the most bullish pick. The FEI and TeamRankings projections are more likely to take UConn with the number.

Getting the rare opportunity to empty the bench this season, it wouldn’t exactly be surprising to see the game a little closer to a 5-TD margin Saturday.

Prediction

48-10 Clemson

(Situational stats per CFBStats.com. SP+ is a metric from ESPN's Bill Connelly, formerly of Football Outsiders and SB Nation, that combines ratings for the five factors of efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives and turnovers. FPI is the Football Power Index that has a similar projection-style model from ESPN as well. FEI is a Football Outsiders projection tool that judges team efficiency for a projection. *Expected Points Added is a football statistic that seeks to measure the value of individual plays in terms of points. This is done by calculating the Expected Points of the down, distance, and field position situation at the start of a play and contrasting it with the situation at the end of the play.)