Advanced Outlook: Clemson-Miami projections |
Two proud programs are trying to avoid a third loss in seven games to start the 2023 season under the Hard Rock Stadium lights on Saturday in Miami Gardens (8 p.m./ACCN).
From on-field talent to on-field performance, Clemson (4-2, 2-2 ACC) and Miami (4-2, 0-2) are comparable in several areas, and that is reflected in a close Vegas number and projections. Taking a closer look at how the teams compare: Team overall: Offense | Defense | Special teams CU SP+ ranks ($) (13): 28 | 9 | 71 UM SP+ ranks (16): 23 | 19 | 5 CU FEI ranks (20): 33 | 2 | 132 UM FEI ranks (29): 37 | 29 | 20 CU FPI ranks (18): 59 | 4 | 133 UM FPI ranks (21): 19 | 25 | 83 — Clemson holds a unanimous Top 10 defense – as high as No. 2 – and an offense that’s Top 40 on average but coming off of a poor effort against Wake Forest (a season-low 338 yards and 4.8 yards per play). In ESPN’s advanced metrics, Miami has both a Top 25 offense and defense, but the team comes in on a two-game losing streak overall – one directly on the Hurricanes coaching staff for not taking a knee on the final drive against Georgia Tech. At a Top 15 foe UNC last week, the Tar Heels pulled away to a three-score lead early in the fourth quarter, and Miami tacked on some garbage-time points in a 41-31 defeat. UNC’s potent attack put up a season-high 508 yards and 6.7 yards per play on the Miami defense, which had previously allowed 268 yards and 4.6 yards per play. 1. QB Tyler Van Dyke First of all, is he healthy? If Van Dyke is healthy, he gets a first shot at Clemson, and he needs a bounce-back effort after throwing five of his six interceptions this season over losses in the last two games (he was tagged with only three “turnover-worthy plays” in the games combined, however, per PFF). Over the whole season, Van Dyke ranks third in passing grade (91.2) only to Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. (93.1) and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders (91.8). That’s a massive jump from last year (67.7) and still significantly higher than a breakout 2021 campaign (73.9; 25 TDs to 6 INTs). Van Dyke has been particularly good in deep throws, with a 47.1% big-time throw percentage (16) with 19.9 yards per attempt and graded at 96.4 on throws of 20+. For comparison, Cade Klubnik has a 13% BTT percentage with 15.6 yards per attempt and a 76.8 grade on throws of 20+. Van Dyke has only faced pressure on 21.6% of his dropbacks and graded at 60.9 there (PFF), compared to being under pressure on 27.9% of the ‘22 dropbacks with a 37 grade. Racking up 391 yards and slinging 4 TD passes Tyler Van Dyke continues to make waves.@CanesFootball | #ACCFootball pic.twitter.com/U8ZIv0mSUT (In case it’s necessary, the 6-5 and 220-pound freshman Emory Williams has seen the only other snaps at QB for Miami this season, completing 12-of-15 passes for 144 yards and grading at 55.4 as a passer. He was a 3-star prospect out of Milton, Florida.) 2. ED Rueben Bain The 6-foot-3 and 275-pound freshman has notched a sack in three of his last four games and leads the ‘Canes in pressures (19) and sacks (3) with a team-best 86.7 pass-rush grade and the second-best overall defensive grade (81.8). Rueben Bain getting held but still gets pressure on Drake Maye #GoCanes 💚🧡 pic.twitter.com/vIDtZFRvZp 3. WR Xavier Restrepo The 5-10 target has almost more targets this season (61) than the previous three years combined (64), with a PFF grade (90.4) among the national leaders (No. 4 overall, min. three targets a game). He has 29 catches that have gained first downs overall this season and four touchdowns in his last three games. Clemson holds the same overall SP+ ranking as it did after six games last year, at No. 13, despite those Tigers being undefeated then and the ‘23 Tigers being 4-2. In fact, this year’s Clemson team has a higher rating (17.3-16.7), but there is a bigger gap to a spot in the Top 10 (just 0.5 last year; 2.8 this year). Clemson held Top 25 marks on offense (24th) and defense (18th) and was slightly better on special teams (60th) through six games in 2022. The Tigers were No. 4 in SP+ through six games in 2021. Clemson -3.5; 48.5 over/under. SP+ projection: Miami 26-25 (51% Miami projection) FEI: Clemson 21-18 (57.1% Clemson projection) ESPN FPI: 52.5% Clemson projection CLEMSON @ MIAMI FL pic.twitter.com/32OtXTWfeI Analysis: The spread lines up largely with the projections, and it shows the uncertainty on the Tigers and some of the impressive numbers Miami put up before its recent two-game swoon. In the trends category, Miami has lost six of its last eight home games under head coach Mario Cristobal and seeks its first ACC home win under him. Clemson looks to shake some bye-week cobwebs from the previous two campaigns, where a 35-14 loss came at Notre Dame after one last year, and there was an unexpected close call at Syracuse in 2021 (17-14 win). Miami is a team that should be desperate, but we don’t know if they can be consistently good. Clemson is a team that should be deperate, but we don’t know if they can consistently put it all together either. Clemson has a history of success against Miami lately (four consecutive wins, and by 27.5 points per game in the last two meetings), and until proven otherwise, the Tigers should be able to squeeze out a victory margin over the fairly low number here. Pick: Clemson -3.5. (2-4 on ATS picks, 3-3 on over/under; Game score pick in TigerNet’s weekly game prediction story). Efficiency rankings
Three Miami players to watch
Misc. Clemson stat of the week
Odds
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