Advanced Outlook: Clemson-Notre Dame projections |
Clemson’s trip to Notre Dame was set for primetime (7:30 p.m./NBC) when it was scheduled years ago essentially, and both teams carried top-10 preseason rankings that put the matchup on must-watch lists throughout the long summer months.
Then Notre Dame lost the opener, albeit understandably, to a top-5 Ohio State team. Then Notre Dame lost as a double-digit home favorite to Marshall. Then Notre Dame lost as a double-digit home favorite to Stanford. Yet 5-3 now against the Playoff committee’s No. 4 team Clemson (8-0), the game is still billed as a potential classic with the Tigers a narrow favorite (3.5 points currently) on what could be a blustery night in South Bend. Taking a look at where the metrics peg these teams so far: Efficiency ranks: Offense: | Defense | Special teams CU SP+ ranks ($) (11): 25 | 14 | 30 ND SP+ ranks (32): 54 | 28 | 19 CU FPI ranks (7): 20 | 26 | 20 ND FPI ranks (18): 61 | 23 | 10 CU FEI ranks (15): 38 | 11 | | 8 ND FEI ranks (21): 51 | 16 | 6 – On average, Clemson is pegged to have an offense just outside the top-25, a defense hovering around the top-15 and a top-20 special teams group, while Notre Dame’s strength comes in top-25 defensive and special teams units. TigerNet contributor Ryan Kantor did an interesting Q&A with a Notre Dame site this week that said this about the Irish: Either Notre Dame plays to the level of its competition, or the Irish struggle to play at home. The answer to that certainly impacts the matchup against Clemson. Notre Dame’s games away from home were against No. 2 Ohio State, undefeated North Carolina, No. 16 BYU and No. 16 Syracuse. Notre Dame went 3-1 against those teams, and they led the Buckeyes for over half the game. At home, the Irish lost to Marshall, 2-4 Stanford and struggled to beat Cal. Their only “convincing” win was against UNLV. So, is this a home issue or a quality of competition issue that comes from a lack of leadership or overall maturity as a team? We’ll find out this weekend. Examining that point, Notre Dame’s date with a top-5-ranked team so far yielded 10 points and 253 yards in the road opener at Ohio State. Overall, the Fighting irish have averaged a 166-yard margin away from Notre Dame Stadium this year versus at home, even with the Ohio State game factored in. Against Power 5 competition at home, Notre Dame averaged 19 points and 299 yards, versus Cal and Stanford. Even with a nicer-looking score as a slight underdog, the 41-24 win at Syracuse last week yielded their worst yards per play average of the season (4.83) as they just stuck to the run with varying success like a battering ram for a season-high 56 attempts for 246 yards and three scores. Starting QB Drew Pyne completed only 47.4% of his pass attempts for 116 yards with a TD and interception. To keep with the theme, however, Pyne has a better QB rating in road/neutral games (160.65) than home (127.36) with only 6.3 yards per pass and 131.5 yards passing a game at home. He has an offensive line that’s been pretty solid when it comes to the run game, with top-30 rankings in stuff rate (8; runs not contained to line of scrimmage or behind), adjusted line yards^ (15), standard down line yards (19), passing down line yards (20) and opportunity rate* (29) – while not as efficient in gaining necessary yards rushing on third and fourth down (104th in power success rate#). They face a Clemson defensive group that’s been pretty good on early downs (16th in standard down line yards) and on stuffing runs around the line (32nd) but largely middle-of-the-pack as a whole (61st in adjusted line yards; 107th in opportunity rate; 60th in sack rate; 53rd against power success). It’s cliche but Clemson’s ability to control the line of scrimmage, particularly on defense, will likely determine just how this game goes. (Per Football Outsiders: ^ The line gets credit for rushing yardage between 0-3 yards and 50% credit for yards 4-8. Anything over 8 yards is quantified as a highlight opportunity, and credit goes to the runner. As with the pro definition, lost yardage still counts for 125%. Garbage time is filtered out for all line yardage averages. * The percentage of carries (when four yards are available) that gain at least four yards, i.e. the percentage of carries in which the line does its job. # Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown.) Three Notre Dame players to watch 1. TE Michael Mayer - Mayer is the center of the Notre Dame passing offense and his receiver grade ranks fourth-best among every target nationally (min. 10 targets). The 6-foot-4 tight end has 47 catches in a team-leading 74 targets (exactly double of the nearest ND receiver) for 580 yards and six scores. He also ranks top-5 on the Irish in run block grade (76). 2. LT Joe Alt - Alt leads all offensive linemen nationally in offensive grade (91.4) with a top-5 mark among linemen in run blocking (90.8) but a lower yet-still-strong figure in pass blocking (83.4; best grade in this particular matchup). 3. S Brandon Joseph - The Northwestern transfer is coming off of his best game for the Irish yet, in the win at Syracuse, where he graded 82.4 in coverage with four yards allowed in three targets his way with an interception and two tackles. Odds Clemson -3.5; 44.5 over/under. Metrics predictions SP+ projection: Clemson 29-24 (62% Clemson projection) ESPN FPI: 64.8% Clemson projection TeamRankings*: 23.4-20.4 Clemson FEI: Clemson 24.6-21.3 (59% Clemson projection) CLEMSON @ NOTRE DAME pic.twitter.com/88mVfAmpJo Fun gambling note for this weekend. *In the above link as well. Analysis: How much do you factor in the intangibles? On paper, Clemson has been a better team this year. Notre Dame hasn’t played well against even middling teams at home (Marshall 57th in SP+; Stanford 78th). The Tigers have had an open week to right some wrongs and a useful look from Notre Dame’s matchup at Syracuse last week. On the road, Clemson is 3-1 against the spread this season with the one that went awry against a much better offense than they’ll meet this weekend (Wake Forest). This should be Notre Dame’s Super Bowl with a charged crowd behind them, but Fighting Irish coach Marcus Freeman is talking up his team acting like they belong in a tier with Clemson this weekend. Their play so far this season doesn’t speak to taking that angle, however, and Clemson should show that on the scoreboard. Pick: Clemson -3.5. What’s left after this weekend 11/12 v. Louisville: 5-3 (3-3 ACC), won three in a row and 4-of-5. SP+ - 44. FPI - 29. FEI - 29. 11/19 v. Miami: 4-4 (2-2 ACC), won 2-of-3. Won in four overtimes at Virginia last weekend without scoring a touchdown, 14-12. SP+ - 62. FPI - 53. FEI - 75. 12/26 v. South Carolina: 5-3, lost 23-10 to Missouri over the weekend to break a four-game winning streak. SP+ - 39. FPI - 51. FEI - 48.
The last time a Top 5 team was a four-point favorite (or less) vs. an unranked opponent? It actually happened last year.
No. 3 Michigan State was a 2.5-point favorite at unranked Purdue and lost 40-29 to the Boilermakers.
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