Advanced Outlook: Clemson-Ohio State Playoff Sugar Bowl projections

Etienne made his biggest impact as a receiver against the Buckeyes, with three catches for 98 yards and 2 TDs.

by Brandon Rink - Staff Writer - Tue Dec 22 14:58:50 GMT-04:00 2020

It just doesn’t get weirder on this kind of stage in college football.

Clemson’s pandemic-affected season yielded a run past mid-December to a No. 2 ranking for the College Football Playoff. Ohio State’s pandemic-affected year began with no 2020 season at all, then a late October start and three games canceled along the way to a No. 3-seed.

So with 11 games of data for the ACC’s Tigers, and six contests, plus a reputation as a college football power in the Buckeyes’ favor -- the stage is set for a National Championship spot out of the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1 (8:45 p.m. ET/ESPN).

Here’s how they matchup by a pair of advanced metrics in the three phases:

Efficiency ranks (pre-bowls): Offense | Defense | Special teams

CU SP+ ranks (No. 2 overall): 5 | 4 | 8

OSU SP+ ranks (No. 3): 2 | 8 | 86

CU ESPN ranks (No. 3 FPI rank): 7 | 1 | 97

OSU ESPN ranks (No. 2): 2 | 11 | 27

(SP+ is a metric from ESPN's Bill Connelly, formerly of Football Outsiders and SB Nation, that combines ratings for the five factors of efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives and turnovers. ESPN’s own measure follows a similar formula to measure team efficiency and is tied to the ESPN Football Power Index.)

The Projections

This is a game where metrics could really struggle to evaluate it -- or be right on the money. We’ll find out in the Superdome Jan. 1.

The three metrics we track here all have it as nearly a pick’em game, with the SP+ predicting the widest margin in any favor (Clemson by 1.8). FEI slightly takes Ohio State and FPI is slightly Clemson.

The current Vegas line has moved a little the Tigers' way at 7.5-points now since the matchup was announced on Sunday. Clemson has won two CFP meetings with the Buckeyes in this spot already, including a 29-23 comeback thriller last year in the Fiesta Bowl. In terms of motivation, the Buckeyes had that score posted in the weight room this January as a reminder of their 2020 goal: beating Clemson.

The Tigers' last experience with back-to-back Playoff matchups was the four-game series with Alabama from 2015-18, where neither side won two in a row. A number of factors seem to indicate that won't be the case in this ACC/Big Ten showdown, but that’s why you play the games and this will be a hyped matchup regardless.

Metrics outlook | Prediction

SP+ projection: 54% Clemson (Clemson by 1.8)

FEI: 50.2% Ohio State

ESPN FPI: 50.2% Clemson

Ohio State players to watch

QB Justin Fields

Fields gets his shot at redemption versus the Tigers on an inconsistent run lately. Coming off of his worst game, Fields dropped outside the top-10 of PFF’s passing grade (min. 3 games; 90.2), but he is in the top-10 and just ahead of Trevor Lawrence in overall rating (92.3-92.1). Fields actually graded the worst as a passer in his starting career with the 22-10 win over Northwestern last time out (54.1) and has been shaky in that area since the Buckeyes’ schedule was disrupted. He's averaged a 64 grade as a passer in the last three contests after a 91.2 mark in the first three weeks of Ohio State’s season. Field tallied his best two grades as a runner in the last two outings, however (85.2 at Michigan State; 83.5 vs. Northwestern), which is an area he is greatly improved in over 2019 (87.5 grade in 2020; 60.9 in 2019).

Fields grades pretty well overall against the blitz (81.6) with a nine yards per pass attempt average, 70.9 completion rate and nine touchdowns to three interceptions, but as designated “under pressure,” that slips to a 54.2 grade, 37.5 completion rate, 4.8 yards per attempt and two touchdown to three interceptions. For comparison, Trevor Lawrence holds a 77.3 grade when blitzed, 8.2 yards per attempt, 58.5 completion rate and seven touchdowns to one interception, while carrying a 56.2-mark under pressure, 39.7 completion rate, 6.3 yards per attempt and six touchdowns to one interception.

Fields fell well below his 2019 season averages against Clemson last year (91.5 offense grade overall/70.4 vs. Clemson; 92.4 passing grade overall/71.2 vs. Clemson). He connected on 50 percent of his throws under pressure against the Tigers for 44 yards and actually threw both of his picks not-under pressure with a 7.3 yards per attempt average there.

RB Trey Sermon

The Buckeyes have leaned on the 6-1 and 215-pound Oklahoma transfer in the last two games with over 400 rushing yards and all three of his rushing TDs. He graded out at 93.6 in the Big Ten title game effort.

DT Haskell Garrett

Garrett keys a stout Ohio State run defense with the top grade for an interior defensive lineman in the nation (92.1; min. 50 snaps).

Haskell Garrett BIG MAN TD

pic.twitter.com/QTFuue9lxi
— PFF College (@PFF_College) December 5, 2020

(Grades and advanced stats per Pro Football Focus).

Clemson and Ohio State by the numbers (pre-bowls)

Both teams can score, but Clemson is the most complete team by the numbers.

Clemson ranks in the top-20 in 14 stats across both sides of the ball, with top-10 marks in tackles for loss a game (3rd; 9.4), scoring offense (44.9 PPG), sacks (4th; 4), total defense (6th; 298.5 YPG), passing offense (7th; 343.8), third down offense (9th; 30.4%), rushing defense (9th; 99.8) and fourth down offense (10th; 76.9).

The Buckeyes have top-20 marks in 10 categories with turnover margin (4th; 1.33), rushing offense (5th; 275.7), third down offense (6th; 51.2), total offense (6th; 529.2), rushing defense (7th; 96.7), scoring offense (8th; 42.5), pass efficiency (9th; 174.6) and time of possession (10th; 33:39).

What may speak more to the divide is the difference in the bottom of the stat spectrum.

Clemson doesn’t rank below 65th in any major NCAA stats, and only two are below 45th, while Ohio State is rated below 65th in nine areas -- including tackles for loss allowed (88th; 6.8), red zone offense (103rd; 76.5), sacks allowed (104th; 3) and passing defense (104th; 261.3).

Clemson

Top 25 national rankings

TFLs 3 (9.4), scoring offense 4 (44.9), sacks 4 (4), total defense 6 (298.5), passing offense 7 (343.8), third down defense 9 (30.4%), rushing defense 9 (99.8), fourth down offense 10 (76.9), total offense 11 (504.3), scoring defense 11 (17.5), pass efficiency defense 13 (114.87 rating), fourth down defense 16 (36.8), pass efficiency 17 (157.55), turnover margin 18 (0.82).

Other Clemson key stats

Red zone TD percentage defense 26 (53.9), passing defense 27 (198.6), third down offense 28 (46.7), red zone TD percentage 30 (69.6), sacks allowed 31 (1.64), kickoff returns 34 (23.1), punt returns 36 (9.46), red zone offense 37 (87.5), time of possession 44 (30:52), TFLs allowed 45 (5.45), penalty yards 60 (50.7), rushing offense 65 (163.8).

Ohio State

Top 25 national rankings

Turnover margin 4 (1.33), rushing offense 5 (275.7), third down offense 6 (51.2), total offense 6 (529.2), rushing defense 7 (96.7), scoring offense 8 (42.5), pass efficiency 9 (174.6), time of possession 10 (33:39), fourth down offense 15 (71.4), third down defense 19 (34.1), scoring defense 24 (21).

Other Ohio State key stats

Sacks 26 (2.8), total defense 34 (358), kickoff return defense 38 (18.9), passing offense 42 (253.5), net punting 43 (39.6), pass efficiency defense 47 (129.8), red zone TD percentage defense 56 (61.1), fourth down defense 61 (54.5), red zone defense 62 (83.3), penalty yards 66 (51.8), tackles for loss 66 (6), red zone TD percentage 68 (61.7), punt returns 72 (6.4), tackles for loss allowed 88 (6.8), red zone offense 103 (76.5), sacks allowed 104 (3), passing defense 104 (261.3), punt return defense 126 (26.7).

Advanced Offensive/Defensive line stats

Ohio State offense: Line yards - 2nd; standard down line yards - 3rd; power success rate - 29th; stuff rate - 5th; sack rate - 111th.

Clemson defense: Line yards - 10th; standard down line yards - 2nd; power success rate - 63rd; stuff rate - 11th; sack rate - 2nd.

Clemson offense: Line yards - 45th; standard down line yards - 42nd; power success rate - 22nd; stuff rate - 36th; sack rate - 15th.

Ohio State defense: Line yards - 2nd; standard down line yards - 11th; power success rate - 98th; stuff rate - 2nd; sack rate - 36th.

(Line yards are yards credited to the OL work by rushing yardage between 0-3 yard and 50% credit for yards 4-8. Anything over 8 yards is quantified goes to the runner. As with the pro definition, lost yardage counts for 125%; Standard downs are first down, second-and-7 or fewer, third-and-4 or fewer, fourth-and-4 or fewer; stuff rate is percentage of carries by running backs that are stopped at or before the line of scrimmage; power success rate is percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown.)