Night game in the Valley: Clemson vs. NC State prediction

by David Hood - Senior Writer - Sat Oct 01 07:00:05 GMT-04:00 2022

A night game in Death Valley. A Top Ten matchup with ACC Atlantic title ramifications on the line. The hated Wolfpack. ESPN College GameDay live from Bowman Field. Christian Wilkins as the guest picker. Did I mention it was a night game, with the best entrance in college football?

It doesn’t get much better than this.

NO. 5/5 CLEMSON (4-0, 2-0 ACC) vs. NO. 10/10 NC STATE (4-0, 0-0 ACC)

WHEN: SATURDAY, OCT. 1 • 7:30 P.M. ET
WHERE: MEMORIAL STADIUM (81,500), CLEMSON, S.C.
TELEVISION: ABC (Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, Holly Rowe)
RADIO: Clemson Athletic Network (Don Munson, Tim Bourret, Reggie Merriweather)
RADIO: National Sports Network (Jon Laaser, Luther Maddy)
SATELLITE RADIO: Sirius/XM 81, Internet/App 81

CLEMSON/NC STATE SERIES HISTORY

OVERALL: Clemson leads series, 59-29-1
HOME: Clemson leads series, 29-11-1
ROAD: Clemson leads series, 22-17
NEUTRAL: Clemson leads series, 8-1
LAST MEETING: Sept. 25, 2021 (27-21, L)
STREAK: NC State, Won 1

NOTABLE

*Saturday's game will be the first in the series to feature both teams in the AP Top 10. The Tigers and Wolfpack have previously met five times with both teams ranked in the AP Top 25, including Clemson wins in 1991, 2017 and 2018 and NC State victories in 1986 and 1992. The lower-ranked team took each of the first three meetings until higher-ranked Clemson squads earned wins in 2017 and 2018.

*With Clemson at No. 5 in the AP Poll and NC State at No. 10, the game will feature the highest combined ranking between the two teams in series history, surpassing the 2018 matchup when No. 3 Clemson trounced No. 16 NC State, 41-7. Ranked Clemson teams are 20-7 all-time against NC State, and Clemson is 7-5 all-time against ranked NC State teams.

*Clemson enters the contest having won 36 games in a row at Death Valley, dating to a loss to Pitt on Nov. 12, 2016. A 37th consecutive home win on Saturday would tie the ACC record set by Florida State from 1992- 2001, as Miami's FBS-record 58-game home winning streak from 1985-94 predated the Hurricanes joining the ACC in 2004. Clemson would also tie Florida State and two different Yale runs (1900-03 and 1904-08) for the 11th-longest home winning streak in FBS history.

*Clemson (10) is attempting to extend the nation's longest active winning streak.

*Clemson is attempting to post the eighth winning streak of 11 or more games in program history.

WHEN NC STATE HAS THE BALL

The NC State offense has yet to get going, ranked 69th nationally. That offense goes against a Clemson defense that has yet to get it going, and was torched last week in a win at Wake Forest. The Wolfpack are led by quarterback Devin Leary, who has completed 64 percent of his passes and has nine touchdowns and two interceptions. His favorite target is fifth-year senior Thayer Thomas, who has 15 catches early on. Sophomore Demie Sumo-Karngbaye leads a running game that has been good, but not great, and has gotten most of its yards against UConn and FCS Charleston Southern.

Clemson’s issue has been pass defense - Furman put up 259 yards, Louisiana Tech threw for 311, and Wake’s Sam Hartman threw for over 300 and six touchdowns last week. Expect the Wolfpack to take their shots, especially in the screen game and with their wheel routes, with the tight end coming into play. I expect Clemson to play a lot more zone than we saw last week to help out the corners, with the defense relying on that front-seven to get pressure and hold the run game in check.

Those wheel routes are a worry, however, and this will need to be the best effort the defense has had this season.

ADVANTAGE: EVEN

WHEN CLEMSON HAS THE BALL

Let’s go ahead and get this out of the way. The Wolfpack defense is legit, with next-level players at all three levels. The defense is led by a strong defensive line. The Wolfpack defense has given up just 179.8 passing yards per game and is sixth nationally in opponent passer rating (94.72) while picking off an ACC-best seven passes. Linebacker Drake Thomas leads the team in tackles, but the group swarms and ranks 10th against the run.

However - East Carolina threw for 267 yards and Texas Tech passed for 299 yards. The Tigers have newfound confidence behind quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, the tight ends are getting involved, and Uiagalelei is throwing it all over the field. He’s been especially dangerous with the deep ball.

Clemson is first nationally in red zone conversions (24-24) and sixth in third-down conversions, but the Pack are stingy on third down, giving up just 14 conversions in 56 attempts on the year. The Pack also feature a 3-3-5 defense that the Tigers haven’t had a lot of success against in recent seasons, so this one will come down to the trenches. Can the Tigers’ offensive line help out the playmakers?

ADVANTAGE: SLIGHT TO CLEMSON

Both teams are solid in the kicking game, both have dangerous returners that have yet to get on track. Clemson’s punting has struggled the last few weeks and has to have a big game in what should be a field position game. The big difference might be BT Potter, who is 7-for-7 on the year and calmly drilled a 52-yarder on the road late last week.

ADVANTAGE: POTTER GIVES CLEMSON THE SLIGHT EDGE

WHAT WILL HAPPEN

NC State believes it’s going to win this game, and they have the confidence that comes from taking down the Tigers last season. This is a veteran group that is really good in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and they are going to make plays. There won’t be anything easy about this one. But we’ve been told the defense has had a spirited week of practice, and in getting some players back from injury, confidence is high. The biggest question is how much Clemson can move the ball against that NC State defense.

But this is a Clemson program that is used to playing in big night games. There’s enough leadership on both sides of the ball to carry the day, but a night game in Death Valley and that crowd will also make a difference. The fans have been waiting a few years to get back into their seats, in a sold-out night game against a top opponent and make their voices heard.

The crowd, and the offense, do enough to get the win.

FINAL SCORE: CLEMSON 30, NC STATE 21

More TigerNet picks

Mickey Plyler - The Roar 105.5 morning show host - 31-21 Clemson
Nikki Hood - Staff writer - 30-17 Clemson
Brandon Rink - Associate editor - 27-20 Clemson
Tony Crumpton - Associate editor - 28-20 Clemson
Pigskin Prophet - 34-17 Clemson
Ryan Kantor - Contributing Writer - 31-24 Clemson
Ariana Pensy - TigerNet Intern - 37-34 Clemson

PREDICTION TRACKER

Game	Actual	David Hood	Plyler	Nikki Hood	Rink	Crumpton	Prophet	Kantor	Pensy
GT	41-10 CU	38-13 CU	33-9 CU	41-7 CU	33-10 CU	35-13 CU	34-7 CU	39-6 CU	-
Furman	35-12 CU	50-10 CU	51-10 CU	59-7 CU	45-3 CU	45-3 CU	49-6 CU	48-7 CU	-
La Tech	48-20 CU	37-14 CU	51-10 CU	59-10 CU	44-13 CU	45-13 CU	45-10 CU	45-10 CU	38-10 CU
Wake	51-45 CU 2OT	37-27 CU	38-27 CU	34-20 CU	38-24 CU	31-24 CU	37-23 CU	31-24 CU	56-28 CU
Points	-	6	4	6	4	6	4	4	4

* Points: 3 pts for best correct prediction of the week (tiebreaker is Clemson score), 2 pts for picking score exactly, 1 pt for picking the correct winner